LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Imperial College in London released a COVID-19 report and that's where most of our US leaders are getting the information they're basing their decision making on.
First, the report begins by saying the public health threat of the virus is the most serious they've seen since the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak. It continues to cite that outbreak as a time when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI's) were implemented, like bar closures and school closures. Cities were more successful at reducing case numbers and experienced lower mortality overall.
Then, the report runs through a few different ways this could turn out depending on what responses are. If the public does nothing to control the virus, over 80 percent of people in the US would be infected over the course of the epidemic with 2.2 million deaths from COVID-19. That 2.2 million deaths also doesn't account for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed.
Again, in the situation that we do absolutely nothing to help stop the spread the report predicts critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week of April.
The report goes on to cite a few different ways people can stop the spread.
- Case isolation in the home
- Voluntary home quarantine
- Social distancing of those over 70
- Everyone social distancing
- Closures of schools and colleges.
Obviously, a combination of all of these things is going to be the best option.. short of a complete lockdown which would prevent people from working.
Once these interventions are relaxed the infections will begin to rise and we'll see our peak epidemic.
The more successful the strategy is at a temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic will be if there isn't a vaccine.
The report wraps up by saying to avoid a rebound in transmission, policies need to be maintained until large amounts of a vaccine are available to the population, which could be 18 months or more.
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