LOUISVILLE, Ky. — During a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing Tuesday, Dr. Deborah Birx said it is possible the United States will see somewhere between 100,000 to 240,000 deaths if social distancing is maintained.
The projection, Birx said, comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
IHME has forecasts for the country and all states on its website, breaking down what the government has mandated, how many hospital resources are used, and the possible amount of total deaths.
Projections also include when each state might reach its peak for resources used and daily deaths. Kentucky is expected to reach its peak in mid-May, while Indiana might see its peak sooner in mid-April.
IMHE projects Kentucky could have anywhere from 1 to 35 deaths on May 16 before numbers begin to decrease.
The institute projects Kentucky will reach 815 total deaths on August 4.
Gov. Andy Beshear said during Wednesday's COVID-19 update, though, that up to 3,200 Kentuckians could die even with social distancing based on data from the White House.
Indiana would see its peak much earlier. On April 20, the state could see anywhere from 18 to 71 COVID-19 deaths.
Indiana's total deaths is projected at 1,083 on August 4.
Neither Kentucky nor Indiana will face a shortage of hospital beds throughout the bulk of the pandemic. Kentucky is projected to need 1,561 beds out of 6,210 available beds. Indiana will need 3,636 beds out of 8,485 available beds.
Kentucky is projected to need 187 ventilators, and Indiana will need 436.
Tennessee, the state Gov. Andy Beshear has warned Kentuckians not to travel to, is projected to have a bed shortage, as well as over 1,800 ventilators needed.
At its peak in mid-April, Tennessee could see anywhere from 124 to 199 daily deaths. IMHE projects between 2,500 to 4,100 total COVID-19 deaths in Tennessee by August.
Kentucky has around 2 million fewer residents than both Indiana and Tennessee. You can find every state's projection here.
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