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What does it mean to be in the 'red zone'? FOCUS breaks down incident rates

We all wish we could wake up from this pandemic nightmare. With spread increasing to a 'critical' rate and concern over 'COVID fatigue' we're digging into the data.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Louisville Mayor Fischer and other city leaders are also warning against "COVID fatigue". They say now is not the time to let your guard down. 

The FOCUS team is breaking down how incident rates are determined and how they impact how leaders are making decisions.

Here's a look at the latest incident rate map for Kentucky showing the incident rate for each county.

Credit: Kentucky Public Health

Those rates measure how rapidly the virus is spreading.

To break it down, it is the average new cases in a county over 7 days, per 100,000 people.

The population comes from the U.S. Census Bureau data. 

JEFFERSON COUNTY INCIDENT RATE

Credit: FOCUS Investigates

We've built this graph to show you how the incident rate has changed for Jefferson County every day since September 13th.

Recently the incident rate reached red-- you can see that change with the final bars on the right.

That means the number of daily new cases per 100-thousand people is more than 25.

The state considers that 'critical'. 

INCIDENT RATE GUIDANCE FOR SCHOOLS

Credit: FOCUS Investigates

At the end of September, the State Health Department and the Education Department issued guidelines based on this data.

When the positivity rate is below 6% and the incident rate rises to red, remote learning is recommended.

They want that rate way down before going back to in-person learning; rates need to drop below 10 cases per 100,000 people.

It has been more than a month since Jefferson County was concerned clear to consider in-person learning.

Based on these recommendations and the rise in incident rate the possibility of a return to in-person learning at JCPS could be a distant dream.

We'll keep an eye on it.

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