FRANKFORT, Ky. — Kentucky’s Democratic U.S. Senate Primary race is shaping up to be a lot closer than most predicted a month ago. Before Black Lives Matter demonstrations took to the streets, Kentuckians learned that COVID-19 would mean changes to their Primary Election Day. Governor Andy Beshear and Secretary of State Michael Adams (a Democrat and Republican, respectively) agreed to move the Primary Election to June 23 and allow for more absentee voting.
Before all of that, retired Marine Corps fighter pilot Amy McGrath appeared to have a clear flight path to victory. For more than a year, McGrath had gone from the airways to the air waves, spending millions on advertising with hopes of taking on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in November.
She faces a number of challengers but was the clear favorite by her party’s establishment. But recently, State Representative Charles Booker began to gain traction spurred in part by his activism during recent demonstrations. It was a pitch to the West Louisville native's wheelhouse, and as he took swing after swing his message was a hit with many in those crowds.
But with another candidate, Mike Broihier, getting backing from national groups, a primary delayed by the pandemic with new absentee voting rules and limited locations an outcome becomes harder to guess for political analysts.
Former Metro Council President, Democratic strategist, David Tandy and Republican strategist, Julia Crigler, spoke with us about the late date, surge and whether Booker or anyone can make up for McGrath's $40M campaign war chest especially when it comes to taking on the powerful Senate Majority Leader.
“It's interesting," explained Crigler. “She's obviously outraised booker 40 to 1 but she is a classically flawed candidate in that she oozes inauthenticity where Charles Booker is a lot of thing but he's very genuine. He's a genuine candidate, interesting as a liberal Democrat which is something we haven't seen in a statewide election for democrats in a very long time.”
“From the Booker campaign perspective," explained Tandy. “We’ve tried moderate Democrats before in a race against Sen. McConnell and we haven’t fared well. So why not have a candidate that will full-throatedly support bold and progressive Democratic agenda issues that are out there?”
Both Crigler and Tandy suggest that the change in date and rules make it nearly impossible to predict who will come out ahead when all votes are tallied But had this election taken place on the previous set day of May 19 McGrath would have likely had an easy victory.
“If I’m Amy," said Tandy, “I’m wondering if I did enough to build a level of support and did I pay attention enough to Louisville and really put down any roots here?”
"I think ultimately that McGrath pulls it off and I think Charles Booker wishes he had few more weeks in the election," said Crigler.
Both analysts hint that they think the Senate Majority Leader would prefer to face Charles Booker in the November General Election but whoever wins will need some breaks if they are going to unseat Kentucky’s longtime Senior Senator.
As for what happens on Tuesday, it’s anyone’s guess.
David Tandy explained, “If you want to think about it this race it’s like the Coronavirus in that we may know a lot of things about how viruses operate and how they react to certain things but this race is as novel as the novel virus that we're all in this global pandemic in right now.”
We asked whether he meant we just won’t know how this will all work out until it’s over? Tandy replied, “That is correct. Which is why it's important for everybody to get out and vote and to make their voices heard.”
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►Contact reporter Chris Williams at cwilliams@whas11.com. Follow him on Twitter (@chriswnews) and Facebook.