Yes, this year’s average Thanksgiving meal is more affordable than last year’s

Thanksgiving is on Thursday, Nov. 23, and many people will be heading to their local grocery stores within the next week to grab Thanksgiving dinner staples like turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce, pumpkin pie filling and sweet potatoes.

In 2022, the price of Thanksgiving dinner was at an all-time high due to rising food costs and the avian flu, which caused turkey shortages nationwide. This year, some reports claim Thanksgiving dinner prices will be cheaper than last year, while others indicate it’ll be more expensive.

THE QUESTION

Is this year’s average Thanksgiving meal cheaper than last year’s?

THE SOURCES

• American Farm Bureau Federation
• U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
• Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index
• Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability
• ALDI
• Target
• Walmart
• Veronica Nigh, senior economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation
• Steve Reed, economist at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE ANSWER

Yes, this year’s average Thanksgiving meal is slightly cheaper than last year's.

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WHAT WE FOUND

This year’s average Thanksgiving dinner is slightly less expensive than in 2022 thanks to lower turkey prices. However, the price of the annual holiday meal is still higher than it was before the pandemic in 2020, according to government data and consumer surveys.

For the past 38 years, the American Farm Bureau Federation has conducted an annual Thanksgiving dinner survey. This year’s survey includes responses collected from volunteer shoppers who checked local grocery store prices for items like turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes and cranberry sauce in all 50 states and Puerto Rico between Nov. 1 and Nov. 6 in-person and online.

“Our shoppers found that this year, the price of the Thanksgiving meal for 10 people is $61.17, which is a four-and-a-half percent decrease from last year,” Veronica Nigh, senior economist at the Farm Bureau, told VERIFY.

“The biggest driver of that… is the cost of turkey. The cost of turkey is about 45% of the total cost of the meal. We saw a 5.6% decrease in the cost of turkey this year,” Nigh said.

During the week of Nov. 3 to Nov. 9, USDA data show the average price per pound for whole frozen turkeys was $1.11. A week later, prices declined 14% to 95 cents per pound. The USDA says turkey prices could fall even more within the next week as many stores begin to offer discounts in their weekly ads ahead of Thanksgiving.

“Traditionally, the turkey is the most expensive item on the Thanksgiving dinner table,” Nigh said. “Turkey prices have fallen thanks to a sharp reduction in cases of avian influenza, which have allowed production to increase in time for the holiday.”

Although the average price of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner has decreased slightly when compared to 2022, the Farm Bureau says the meal is “still 25% higher than it was in 2019, which highlights the impact high supply costs and inflation have had on food prices since before the pandemic.”

“Even though we're seeing [an] almost 5% reduction this year, relative to 2019, the Thanksgiving dinner is up 25%,” Nigh said. “Food inflation is certainly still a thing that is of concern to all of us as consumers.”

Steve Reed, an economist at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, agrees.

“I think, in general, you're gonna see maybe a total grocery bill, not too far from what you saw last year, but quite a bit higher than what you might have seen back in 2019,” Reed said.

Comparing this year’s Thanksgiving dinner prices to 2022

For the Farm Bureau’s classic Thanksgiving dinner shopping list, the volunteer shoppers collect price data on turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix, pie shells, whipping cream and whole milk.

The shoppers also check data on boneless ham, russet potatoes and frozen green beans, which reflects “an expanded Thanksgiving” menu, according to the Farm Bureau. With the three additional items added, the cost of the meal is around $84.75 for 10 people.

The Farm Bureau’s survey found that seven of the 11 items in this year’s classic Thanksgiving meal saw a drop in prices since last year in 2022. Those items include turkey, cubed stuffing, frozen peas, cranberries, pie shells, whipping cream and whole milk.

Meanwhile, the survey found that prices of the relish tray, which is a mix of fresh celery and carrots, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls and pumpkin pie mix rose in price this year when compared to 2022.

2023 Thanksgiving Dinner Prices

• 16-pound turkey: $27.35 or $1.71 per pound
• 14-ounce bag of cubed stuffing mix: $3.77
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.84
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.44
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.97
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.10

2022 Thanksgiving Dinner Prices

• 16-pound turkey: $28.96 or $1.81 per pound
• 14-ounce bag of cubed stuffing mix: $3.88
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.73
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.28
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.96
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.57

In 2022, Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability made a "The Cost of a Thanksgiving Meal” dashboard that showed the holiday dinner pricing for 12 people nationwide. Their menu included a whole turkey, mashed potatoes, green beans, sweet potatoes, stuffing, cranberry sauce, dinner rolls and an apple pie with whipped cream.

Using Purdue’s dashboard, VERIFY tabulated last year’s data and found the national average meal price came to $83.68 per 12 people between Nov. 1 to Nov. 6, 2022. We also collected this year’s data from Nov. 1 to Nov. 6, 2023, and found the national average meal price was $81.82 per 12 people, a $1.86 decrease compared to 2022. Note that these numbers differ slightly from the Farm Bureau survey data because the two organizations use different food items and numbers of people in their calculations.

Major retailers offering Thanksgiving meal deals in 2023

If you’re looking to save extra money this Thanksgiving, some major retailers, including ALDI, Target and Walmart are slashing the prices on a variety of seasonal staples this year.

ALDI customers will see price reductions of up to 50% on several items, including gravy, potatoes, green beans, cranberries and pumpkin pie. The sales started on Nov. 1 and will last throughout the entire holiday season.

“With inflation still looming, we're providing shoppers extra relief to make the holidays a time for celebration, not stress,” said ALDI President Dave Rinaldo.

Meanwhile, Target is offering customers a Thanksgiving meal for under $25 both in-store and online. The deal includes Good & Gather brand turkey, russet potatoes and cut green beans, as well as a cream of mushroom soup, a can of jellied cranberry sauce, stuffing mix and gravy.

Walmart is offering two Thanksgiving meal options: one with ingredients for customers who like to cook from scratch and the other for customers who prefer ready-to-bake options. It includes holiday favorites like turkey, ham, stuffing and pumpkin pie. The holiday meal from scratch costs about $61.87 total for eight servings, while the price of the more convenient holiday meal is about $55.70 total for eight servings. These deals will run through Dec. 26, 2023.

“Saving money remains a top priority for our customers, and this holiday season, we’re building on the investments we made last year knowing they need it now more than ever,” said John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S. 

This story is also available in Spanish / Lee este artículo también en español: Sí, la cena promedio de Acción de Gracias de este año es más barata que el año pasado