LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The WHAS11 Verify team is fact-checking claims made by both candidates for Kentucky governor before next Tuesday's election.
This time, we're talking about the money in your wallet and the claims each candidate made about salary during a primetime debate on KET's Kentucky Tonight on Oct. 23.
Democratic incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear's proposal to give Kentucky teachers an 11% raise came under fire, with Republican challenger and Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron questioning whether Beshear's track record shows he can get his plan passed.
Cameron claimed Beshear has failed throughout his term to secure raises for educators across the state.
Beshear responded saying, "Our last budget did end up providing raises. It ended up being up to the school systems how much. On average, it was 3-5%. Under this plan, we do a lot more, but to say educators didn't get raises in the last budget is just flat out untruthful."
Salary increases for educators
THE QUESTION
Have Beshear's proposals secured teachers a raise during his first term? And if, so how much?
THE SOURCES
- The Kentucky Department of Education's data
- Professor Ken Troske, economics chair at the University of Kentucky
THE ANSWER
WHAT WE FOUND
Beshear tried giving teachers a 5% raise, but state lawmakers cut it from the last budget.
However, salaries on average still went up 2.5% because of raises at the district level. But even though pay went up, it wasn't enough to keep up with inflation.
"I would expect that three to 5% weight, you know, jump in pay didn't offset the impact of inflation. Again, teachers are affected by inflation the same way," Troske said.
According to these numbers from the Kentucky Department of Education, for the 2015 school year the average salary was $52,618. In nearly 10 years, it hasn't gone up all that much.
But if you look at inflation-adjusted numbers, you can see a decline in spending power. So, while the salaries are technically going up, teachers aren't actually making any more.
Troske said other than inflation, there's another factor affecting these numbers -- retirement.
"What's true about old people, relative to young people, [is that] they make more money on average. Their earnings are higher. And if all of your high-wage people left, that is your teachers who have taught for 25 to 30 years, your average is going to go down," Troske said.
So, Beshear's claim is false. Although some teachers got a slight pay bump, it wasn't because of Beshear's proposals and not nearly enough to keep up with inflation.
Median household income
Now, to a claim made by Cameron in that same debate in which he said, "Our median household income has dropped 12%, making the last three years the largest decline in median household income in this Commonwealth's history."
THE QUESTION
Did the median household income fall 12% in Kentucky in recent years?
THE SOURCES
- The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and its economic data.
- The U.S. Census Bureau
- Professor Ken Troske, economics chair at the University of Kentucky
THE ANSWER
WHAT WE FOUND
First, let's look at what data Cameron is referring to. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' data shows a significant drop in median household income from 2020 to 2022.
But there's a problem with taking these numbers at face value. Troske has concerns about the survey used to collect these numbers.
"Response rates in the CPS have gone down a lot," he said. "In small places like Kentucky, there's a lot of error in it."
He said only about 65,000 incomes were collected for these numbers, and they are not seasonally adjusted.
For median household income in Kentucky, he recommends using the American Community Survey -- which he confirms is a much bigger survey than the census -- collecting around 250,000 incomes.
Over the last three years, we didn't see as large of a drop. Spending power did fall, but Troske thinks it's because of inflation.
"The fall in income -- real income -- between 2018 and 2022 is about 5%, which in the CPS data, it was closer to 12%," Troske said.
So, did the median household income in Kentucky really fall 12% in three years?
"I find that data implausible, those changes implausibly large," Troske said. "That is an overstatement of the decline in earnings, household income in the state of Kentucky."
The experts say no, and that if you appropriately adjust the numbers, it did fall -- but actually about 5%.
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