LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Everything in 2020 seems to be sideways with all that’s going on and this year’s 146th running of the Kentucky Derby will be no different.
The first Saturday in May is now part of the unofficial end of summer over Labor Day weekend.
Festivals, pomp and circumstance in the weeks leading up to the Derby that typically has downtown Louisville buzzing is now replaced by nearly empty hotel rooms, boarded up businesses and a ghost town feel in the midst of the on-going pandemic and the call for change and social justice.
150,000 people packed shoulder to shoulder under the Twin Spires will now be a smattering of owners and trainers as the proverbial tumbleweed blows through the infield and the grandstand.
It will be unlike any Kentucky Derby in history and everything will be different, but for one exception -- the annual over-sized field of horses for one of the sport’s signature events.
I was born and raised in Lexington, so Kentucky Derby Day was nothing short of a national holiday every first Saturday of May. There were parties and day long celebrations filled with family and friends.
With each passing hour the anticipation built and the butterflies floated in the pit of my stomach, eagerly awaiting the crescendo, which was over in a mere 120 seconds. It was always worth the wait and the adrenaline continued to flow even as the garland of roses was draped across the newly crown champion.
But with each passing Derby through the years, I wondered to myself more and more just prior to the gates flying open, “Will this be the year we’ll see a devastating accident during the race?” And why on earth would I think such a horrible thought? The cruel realty is there are too many horses allowed to run in the Kentucky Derby.
You see the Kentucky Derby is the only horse race in North America during the calendar year that allows more than 14 horses to run in a race. If more than 14 horses enter, there is an “also eligible” list, where those horses can draw into the race in the event one of the original 14 horses is scratched…which typically happens the morning of the race. But it’s different with the Derby.
The prestige of running in the race has usually two dozen 3-year-olds vying for an elusive spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs in early May. The more horses that run in the race, the more profit for the track. It’s just that simple.
As a result, 20 horses are allowed to go to the post and while a horse or two typically scratches out of the race before it's run (the deadline for Derby scratches is Friday afternoon, the day before the race and as a result any “also eligible” horses can’t draw in on Derby Day, even if another horse scratches that morning)…once more, it’s the Derby so different rules.
Despite a full field of 20 going to post has happened only 6 times since 2005, there are still typically 17 to 19 horses in the race. That’s just too many young colts crowded together vying for the same spot. Factor in the intangibles of record breaking crowds most years and the noise that comes with it and it can be sensory overload. One misstep can spell disaster and we came inches from it in 2019.
As Maximum Security hit the wall of sound from the roar of the crowd as he led at the top of the stretch, jockey Luis Saez couldn’t control the young colt, who subsequently veered out about 4 to 5 paths in a few jumps, cut off multiple other horses in route to being disqualified for interference and Country House being crowned the Derby champ. Upon closer examination, thoroughbred racing as we currently know it was this close to potentially being changed forever.
War of Will, who was just in behind Maximum Security came inches from clipping heels with the leader in what would have most certainly created a chain reaction of horses and jockeys tripping and tumbling over each other with the majority of the nearly full field behind them with injuries and possible death to both human and equine participates a distinct possibility.
Given the national stage this would have occurred on with millions watching on TV, the outcry would have been massive with calls for sweeping changes, etc. and my worst fear every Derby would have been realized. Lady luck thankfully won that one but are we still on borrowed time? (Below is the Facebook link to my story from Derby Day 2019 about the controversial ruling and concern for too many horses in the race.)
In any given year there are typically 5-7 horses that have legitimate shots to win the race despite the 18-20 out on the track. You will get the anomaly every once and awhile like in 2009 when Mine That Bird was hauled across the country from New Mexico in the back of a horse trailer to Churchill, was given no shot to win, yet came from dead last and rode the rail to a stunning victory. But that is generally the exception to the rule.
In any given year, the bulk of the field is running for the prestige of being in the race, but my opinion has always been this only serves to clutter up the race and on several occasions has kept the best horse from winning the roses. Poor post position, how the horses break from the gate, who gets bumped around or has to check up and lose momentum in traffic.
These are all legitimate factors that can dash the hopes of the top contenders. I’m sure there are plenty of naysayers out there that think this is all “part of it”, but more young horses clumped together creates the possibility for more trouble, when half the field has no business even being in there, especially when the distance generally doesn’t suit them.
In 2020 I think there are 3 horses (and really one if he gets a clean trip) that can win the Derby on Saturday. Authentic, Honor AP, and the beast that is Tiz The Law. Remember that name because you will hear it a whole bunch between now and Saturday.
Owned by Sackatoga Stable and trained by 82-year-old Barclay Tagg, the same connections that brought the gusty gelding Funny Cide down from New York and win it in 2003 are back at Churchill this year with another New York bred that’s even better! Tiz the Law is on a 4 race winning streak, including winning the Belmont Stakes and most recently the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
This colt has been versatile and perfect in 2020 and just seems to get better each time out. In the Travers, which is run at the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, Tiz the Law was so good that jockey Manny Franco let off gas the final furlong to save some for this Saturday and the winning time was 2:00.95. That’s good enough to have won 8 of the last 10 Kentucky Derbies and one of the reasons he’ll likely be the heaviest favorite at post time in over 30 years!
The one horse I thought could have spoiled the New York party was Art Collector. The Blue Grass Stakes winner wouldn’t have made the Derby had it been run in May but had used the time to come into his own and was a dangerous threat. A foot issue knocked him out just prior to the Derby draw on Tuesday.
Now I think Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A.P. is the biggest challenger. Ironically Honor A.P. and Tiz the Law will be side by side in the starting gate in posts 16 and 17. One interesting tidbit, Tiz the Law has won 6 of 7 career starts. His lone 3rd place finish happened last November at…Churchill Downs!
There is a points system in place annually where horses earn crucial points by finishing in the Top 3 to 4 spots of designated prep races to help qualify them for the big race. Of course, the top 20 in points get in with horses literally jockeying for position (no pun intended) through mid to late April to make the race. Again…way too many horses!
With the push to Labor Day weekend, I really thought this would be the year would we finally have the much-desired field of 14 horses or less. After all, a 4-month delay has caused a ton of attrition. Between injuries, owners/trainers not wanting their colts running 10 furlongs or opting for shorter/easier spots to race thus avoiding the likes of Tiz the Law, a number of horses that have qualified are not running. Great news right? Not so fast unfortunately. The quest to run in THE race of a lifetime is just too alluring for some, despite the fact that it is an unreachable prize for most colts that clearly have no business running and may just get in the way.
Just for some perspective, there is even one horse, Money Moves, that has ZERO points toward getting into the Derby, yet meager allowance race earnings will give him the chance to run. To each his own but I feel it’s detrimental to the quality and history of the race. Now I may be sitting here eating crow after 7pm on Saturday evening if lightning strikes and we see a huge upset.
I’m totally comfortable with the stance I’ve taken here if that happens but what concerns me is that it is 2020. Many unprecedented and not so great things have happened in our world. While the risk will always be there in horse racing, a smaller Derby field would reduce the odds of something unpleasant happening, yet 18 colts will head to the gate at Churchill this Saturday.
For 2 minutes on what should be a perfect Saturday under the Twin Spires, I’ll still be holding my breath for a clean and safe trip for everyone.
T.G. Shuck
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