LOUISVILLE, Ky. — On Saturday, June 1, the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins. If you have any vacations planned, you're going to want to travel with insurance. Let's talk about how active this year could be.
Every year, NOAA and Colorado State University forecast how active the season could be. This year they state there is an 85% chance it will be an above normal season.
A normal hurricane season brings an average of 14 named storms with seven becoming hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Both NOAA and Colorado State predict a well above-average season.
According to ABC News, multiple officials, including National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan and National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, described the 2024 outlook as the "highest" forecast ever issued in May.
There are two main reasons for such an active projection. The first is record-breaking, above average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. This provides the fuel for thunderstorms to continue to develop into a potential strong low-pressure system.
Tropical storms are rather simple. Think of it as an engine that only needs a few elements to go from 0-100 mph. For hurricanes, those elements are typically hot temperatures and no wind acting against the system.
That leads me to reason two: La-Nina. In the Southern Pacific the trade winds are forecasted to weaken and switch to a predominant easterly wind. If it stayed as a westerly wind and was during El- Nino, that would bring winds over to the Atlantic and eat apart storms that try to form. This is not the case this year.
Most of the time, the trade winds can save many storms from rapid development. This year, that is not going to be in our favor.
Regardless of the prediction, it only takes one storm to ruin a vacation or impact a community you or someone you know reside in or visit. It's important to stay updated and prepared no matter where you live.
You can read NOAA's entire 2024 hurricane forecast here.
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