LOUISVILLE, Ky. — NOAA released their 2023-2024 winter weather outlook Thursday morning. It's a forecast based on many parameters that helps us anticipate what to expect in the upcoming winter season.
There are a number of things to consider when putting together this outlook. This year, El Niño is in control and will heavily influence weather across the country.
During an El Niño year, milder, drier than normal conditions are seen across the Midwest -- meaning fewer extreme weather events.
These climate patterns are used as a guidance, not necessarily a rule. Every El Niño year is different and this year will be no exception.
So far, we have underachieved when it comes to our moisture this fall. We remain under a moderate drought in the latest drought monitor that was released on Thursday.
The Climate Prediction Center forecasts that we will probably see enough moisture to dig us out of that category between now and the end of the year.
Though the outlook anticipates enough precipitation to get out of the drought in the near future, when it comes to moisture over the entire winter season, it's a coin toss.
Above average moisture is likely for the Deep South as well portions of the Mountain West. The opposite has been predicted for the Great Lakes Region, leaving Kentucky somewhere in between. According to the outlook, we could go either way with equal chances for above or below average moisture.
Warmer than average temperatures have been forecasted for the Ohio Valley.
A drier and warmer than normal probability does not mean cold snaps won't happen or that major snowstorms are out of the question, just that extreme events will probably be less frequent this upcoming winter.
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